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The Future's Uncertain...

I think of myself as a futurist which, by its nature, means I'm comfortable making predictions about what the future holds and the actions successful organizations ought to be taking NOW to get ready. Perhaps you, dear reader, and I are both more comfortable making and relying on predictions than we should be.


My favorites:
"Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) are fundamentally sound.... I think they are in good shape going forward." — Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee Chairman, July 14, 2008

"In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." — Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007
Good lessons, both, in looking for the story BEHIND the forecast, and understanding how much context matters.

Frank's utterance is, I think, more wishful thinking than forecasting, a sign of a man knowing his goose is cooked but hoping that nobody ELSE knows it. The latter probably reflects Madoff's need for a few more months of getaway planning.


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