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Two Views Of the Future Of Employer-Sponsored Health Coverage

RE: the future of health insurance, Booz&Co calls forecasts of the demise of employer-sponsored coverage "greatly exaggerated."

I hope they're right; I fear they're not.  Believing that large employers will continue offering coverage - at increasingly ruinous rates - out of a "sense of moral responsibility" is pure fantasy.   They saw no moral obligation when the issue was off-shoring jobs and they won't in this case either.  Nor, with slow-growth economic conditions projected to last as far as the gimlet eye can see, do they believe  themselves in much of a battle to "attract and retain talent."  

Worse, they're herd-followers.  The more organizations dumping health insurance, the more we'll see jumping on the "we're doing it to stay competitive" bandwagon.  And so much for that.

Small employers probably do have a larger sense of obligation, God bless 'em.  Their issue is health coverage's sheer unaffordability.  They'd like to but they can't - unless health care's cost trajectory is somehow tamed.   Anyone want to take that bet?

Here's the opposite viewpoint from Kaiser Health News, featured in a post of mine from back in November, 2010 titled "What Would Happen If Employers Walked Away From Health Coverage?"

It ain't pretty.

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